Tuesday, July 11, 2017

States With High War Casualties Tended to Lean Toward Donald Trump

The military is always an interesting demographic, particularly because it's changing. But also because those connected to the military (spouses, parents, children, friends) can be a good indicator of how people feel about things like war and global politics.

Well, after two Bush wars and at least seven extended conflicts with Obama (a combination of Bush's wars, drone-lead assaults and other skirmishes involving troops), these people seem to bet tired of the whole thing.

At least, that's how they may have voted.

The Intercept has a story that supports the theory that President Trump won over voters connected to military casualties. It should be noted that while Hillary Clinton was marginalizing Black Lives Matter and calling Bernie Sanders supporter sexists, Trump was promising factory workers that they would keep their jobs and war survivors that conflicts would end.

Now while the truth is ugly (namely that Clinton's disdain for those who opposed her was genuine while Trump's promises were empty) is does not negate the difference between the two: while false, Trump had a message that resonated. His slogan (Make American Great Again) was formatted for every audience he encountered, and while his actions may have made many mature and critical thinking minds cringe, his words gave a comfort to those who felt unrepresented.

The most stunning revelation of this story is that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan -all states which could have swung in Clinton's favor and have drawn the ire of both her supporters and center-right Democrats- had relatively high casualty rates. If the Democrats had been more anti-war during Obama's term or if Clinton has spoken more clearly about how she intended to minimize losses, these states may have swung in the Democrat's favor.

A second revelation comes from the researchers behind the study: don't expect many in the mainstream to discuss these findings, because they have very connection to anyone who has experienced military casualty.

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