"Our Goal In Iraq..."
It's hard work to find out what the mission in Iraq is nowadays. New Secretary of Defense Robert Gates broke it down like this:
"Our goal is an Iraq that can defend itself, sustain itself, and govern itself, and live free from the scourge of extremism. There's widespread agreement here that failure would be a calamity for American national interests and those of many other countries as well."
Ok, then: now we have something to work with. Let's look at the four criteria:
AN IRAQ THAT CAN DEFEND ITSELF
That won't happen until Iraq has a stable, trustworthy military. I don't know what the ratio is of American troops who are training vs American troops who are fighting, but either the training hasn't been taking, the Iraqis are resisting the training or the Iraqis have been trained correctly. My bias to America make me want to believe the first two scenarios, but either way that means that Iraq isn't exactly on pace to be able to defend itself. As for being trustworthy: wouldn't we also want an army that not only could fend off an invading army (unless it's us again, I guess) but not partake in favoring (read: killing) one ethnic group over another? If so, the military must also be diverse: made up of Sunni and Shi'a. Accomplishing this will take a long time, probably longer than President Bush's remaining two years in office.
AN IRAQ THAT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF
This could mean financially. I don't see Iraq surviving in the early stages with do some kind of trading with their neighbors, and they definitely won't survive if they follow the Bush Administration's doctrine of not talking to countries they don't like. They'll need materials to export and import, and the means to transport them. They'll need businesses to operate these functions. Who or what entity will control the economy? How will currency be printed? How can people post and answers requests for jobs? Those are only some of the questions that would need to be answered before you can claim that a country is "sustaining itself."
AN IRAQ THAT CAN GOVERN ITSELF
If their government is to model ours, they'll need a way to collect money so the federal government can function. It will also be nice to show tolerance for all ethnicities and genders. But the real question is: could the government survive a coup? A takeover from within? Only a very intricate constitution (like ours) can fight such a thing, and as recent American events have shown, even we were in danger of losing it all. Also, government must be slow. A quick-to-judgment body of leaders will only lead to a bloody civil war or at best , an annual upheaval. The question is: how does the surge help any of this come to pass?
AN IRAQ FREE FROM THE SCOURGE OF TERRORISM
"Free" like Israel? Great Britain? The U.S.A.? All three of these places have been hit, and they represent probably the hardest places to infiltrate. In reality, Iraq will never be 100% "free," but it can be safer. But this really depends on accomplishing the first three tasks above. A corrupt army, recessive economy or fractured government could be just the opening future terrorists need.
In short, to do what Gates wants will take longer than 2 years, especially when you look at the past 4 years as a barometer of success.
"Our goal is an Iraq that can defend itself, sustain itself, and govern itself, and live free from the scourge of extremism. There's widespread agreement here that failure would be a calamity for American national interests and those of many other countries as well."
Ok, then: now we have something to work with. Let's look at the four criteria:
AN IRAQ THAT CAN DEFEND ITSELF
That won't happen until Iraq has a stable, trustworthy military. I don't know what the ratio is of American troops who are training vs American troops who are fighting, but either the training hasn't been taking, the Iraqis are resisting the training or the Iraqis have been trained correctly. My bias to America make me want to believe the first two scenarios, but either way that means that Iraq isn't exactly on pace to be able to defend itself. As for being trustworthy: wouldn't we also want an army that not only could fend off an invading army (unless it's us again, I guess) but not partake in favoring (read: killing) one ethnic group over another? If so, the military must also be diverse: made up of Sunni and Shi'a. Accomplishing this will take a long time, probably longer than President Bush's remaining two years in office.
AN IRAQ THAT CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF
This could mean financially. I don't see Iraq surviving in the early stages with do some kind of trading with their neighbors, and they definitely won't survive if they follow the Bush Administration's doctrine of not talking to countries they don't like. They'll need materials to export and import, and the means to transport them. They'll need businesses to operate these functions. Who or what entity will control the economy? How will currency be printed? How can people post and answers requests for jobs? Those are only some of the questions that would need to be answered before you can claim that a country is "sustaining itself."
AN IRAQ THAT CAN GOVERN ITSELF
If their government is to model ours, they'll need a way to collect money so the federal government can function. It will also be nice to show tolerance for all ethnicities and genders. But the real question is: could the government survive a coup? A takeover from within? Only a very intricate constitution (like ours) can fight such a thing, and as recent American events have shown, even we were in danger of losing it all. Also, government must be slow. A quick-to-judgment body of leaders will only lead to a bloody civil war or at best , an annual upheaval. The question is: how does the surge help any of this come to pass?
AN IRAQ FREE FROM THE SCOURGE OF TERRORISM
"Free" like Israel? Great Britain? The U.S.A.? All three of these places have been hit, and they represent probably the hardest places to infiltrate. In reality, Iraq will never be 100% "free," but it can be safer. But this really depends on accomplishing the first three tasks above. A corrupt army, recessive economy or fractured government could be just the opening future terrorists need.
In short, to do what Gates wants will take longer than 2 years, especially when you look at the past 4 years as a barometer of success.
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