Every Direction But the Right One.

Fred Kaplan on one of many of President Bush's guffaws at last week's press conference:

It's also time to reassess what has been the Bush administration's strongest argument for staying the course—that if we fail in Iraq, "al-Qaida will be emboldened." The argument may be true. Then again, if we keep fighting to no avail in Iraq, al-Qaida might be emboldened as well—and, the longer this futile fight goes on, and the longer they can portray us as infidel occupiers, the more resentful warriors they can rally to their cause.

By exaggerating both al-Qaida's significance and its omnipresence generally, President Bush is only helping fulfill his direst fears.

At the start of a fight, there's some strategic sense in hyping the consequences of defeat: It galvanizes the troops, builds popular support, and discourages political critics from even talking about withdrawal.

However, if it becomes clear that victory (especially victory as it was originally defined) might be impossible, and if there's little a commander or leader can do to reverse the trend, it's strategically shrewd to start lowering the stakes. In this case, the president, in his rhetoric, should start downplaying the role of al-Qaida. And he should start revving up the diplomatic machinery, so that when we do withdraw (or scale back), the move can be presented in the context of some regional security arrangement—in other words, to make it look as little as possible like a rout.

Sadly, there's little chance of that happening anytime soon. Bush's resistance to withdrawal and timetables stem from, I believe, one thing: his father's decision to withdrawal during his administration. He wants to avoid being called "weak" or "a wimp" at all costs (notice it's the one insult that isn't frequently flung in 43's direction). Unless there some way for him to come out on top politically, Bush will not announce anything resembling a pullout.