So...What Happened? (2024 US Elections)
If I were to sum up in one word: "capitalism." The voters responded to capitalism.
Capitalism is what got Barack Obama into office. Capitalism is what made voters decide to give Donald Trump a change in 2016. Capitalism is what ultimately undermined Trump in 2020, allowing Joe Biden to slip in, and capitalism made voters give Trump another another chance for 2024.
Wall Street was behind Obama, as was most of the people because of what Obama promised (albeit vaguely). After Obama was found to be less-than trustworthy (in particular to black Americans) on the economic front, Hillary Clinton appeared to be an extension of those policies which was unappealing to voters. Trump gets in, but gives tax breaks to rich (while also raising taxes on non-rich voters) and fumbles handling the pandemic (which costs businesses money). Biden promised to fix things, and while the pandemic greatly eased (yet not been completely eradicated) Biden also said that "nothing will fundamentally change" under his administration, all but insuring a "Trump Lite" presidency (with Reagan Democrat seasoning). After Biden was pushed dropped out of 2024 and Kamala Harris stepped up, she was asked how her administration would differ from Biden; she could not give a clear, coherent answer. Instead of forming one, Harris ignored the base made alliances with anti-Trump Republicans, which is not a good strategy. For many, that just meant that a Harris administration would be an extension of a Biden administration, which itself was a continuation of Trump's economic policies.
So faces with a choice between pure, raw Trumpism and Trumpism Lite with shades of Reagan and vague liberalism, what did people whose wallets were already getting lighter decide to do?
So ultimately, capitalism won out because America is still a capitalist country. Running an electoral campaign on anything other capitalism will make winning ridiculously difficult. You have to explain how you being in office will make the voter more economically prosperous. Talking about cultural issues or even "saving democracy" make work for a few or even in the short term, but unless you're talking about putting forth more socialistic changes, you have to tie things back to the economics.
(and in the case of issues like Ukraine or Gaza: if there is a war or genocide occurring while your party's in power, you must talk about solid economic solutions otherwise you come across as lacking in issue both home and abroad).
Case in Point: The Right to Abortion was a ballot measure in ten states. Here's how it played out:
- Arizona: 61.4% Yes; 38.6% No (Passed)
- Colorado: 61.6% Yes; 38.4% No (Passed)
- Florida: 57.2% Yes; 42.8% No (Not Passed)
- Maryland: 74.1% Yes; 25.9% No (Passed)
- Missouri: 51.7% Yes; 48.3% No (Passed)
- Montana: 57.5% Yes; 42.5% No (Passed)
- Nebraska: 48.8% Yes; 51.2% No
- Nevada: 63.7% Yes; 36.3% No (Passed)
- New York: 61.9%; 38.1% No (Passed)
- South Dakota: 41.4%; 58.6% (Not Passed)
So out of ten states, seven passed, two did not and one is a close to no but not officially called as of this post. There's also some interesting revelations regarding citizenship/ID requirements (passed a majority of states), ranked choice voting (did no pass in any states) and minimum wage (generally speaking, measures to increase or decrease were voted down).
Now CNN did a breakdown of Trump's performance over three elections, and there was some interesting revelations:
there doesn't seem to be any great attraction to Trumpism, yet the income breakdowns suggest one's earnings (or perhaps their ability/inability to make ends meet?) could be a factor in party choice.
At the end of the day, one candidate made better promises that voters believe would help them with their economic situation. So until a candidate comes in with a strong case that socialism can make the working class voter's lives better, expect capitalism to be a strong influence on American elections. That said, there are certainly other factors that were at play.
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