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"If you had told me before the series, 'Cleveland is going to blow 20-point leads in three of the first five games, Dwight Howard is going to make a mini-Leap, Orlando is going to put on a historic shooting display, and Mike Brown is going to freeze like Rocky during the last few seconds of the Drago-Creed fight,' yeah, I would have picked Orlando. But weren't those four pretty sizable reaches?" -- Bill Simmons , explaining why he didn't pick Orlando over Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals.

It's crazy how Bill Simmons, a guy who writes about sports for a living, can be so on point about non-sport issues. At least much more so than other guys. Anyway, while talking about Kevin Garnett's injury, he gets into the newspaper issue : There's a hidden sub-story lurking here: It involves the fall of newspapers, lack of access and the future of reporting, not just with sports but with everything. I grew up reading Bob Ryan, who covered the Celtics for the Boston Globe and remains the best basketball writer alive to this day. Back in the 1970s and early '80s, he was overqualified to cover the team. In 1980, he would have sniffed out the B.S. signs of this KG story, kept pursuing it, kept writing about it, kept working connections and eventually broken it. True, today's reporters don't get the same access Ryan had, but let's face it: If 1980 Bob Ryan was covering the Celtics right now, ESPN or someone else would lure him away. And that goes for the editor...

The Sports Guy wonders if all the winning his hometown is doing will eventually make him a bad fan . He concludes that it won't, but the journey he takes to get to this conclusion make me wonder whether he was drunk on "victory" or something else. When you're part of the Bostocalypse, this are the things you worry about apparently.

Bill Simmons explains : 1. Before the 2000-01 season, Pierce was stabbed 11 times at a Boston nightclub, suffered a collapsed lung and nearly bled to death while staggering to the hospital. Less than two weeks later, he played in Boston's first exhibition game. If the same thing had happened to Vince Carter, he would still be on the injured list seven years later. 2. During the 2002-03 season, Pierce got slammed face-first to the floor by Amare Stoudemire, breaking his two front teeth. Thirty minutes later, he was back playing with a mouthpiece. The following day, he underwent emergency dental surgery for seven hours. The day after that, he played against Portland with a mouthpiece and ended up hitting the game-winner. In my opinion, he's not only one of the toughest Celtics ever, he's one of the toughest Boston athletes ever. Not counting Tankapalooza 2007 (when the team shelved Pierce with a knee injury for half the season even when he probably could have played), Pierce ...

The Sports Guy has an interesting take on why Garnett may not be as clutch as one would want: How far can experience actually get you in matters of clutchness? After Garnett jumped from high school to the NBA, he played eight years without ever getting past the first round. Fellow high schooler Kobe Bryant landed on a talented Lakers team, failing famously as a rookie (remember his hideous air balls that ended the series against the Jazz in 1997?), then getting swept by the '98 Jazz and '99 Spurs. Name me one memorable Kobe moment from his first three springs. You can't. But 28 meaningful playoff games provided him with valuable pressurized situations. By the time the 2000 postseason rolled around, Kobe was asserting himself, capping it off with an MJ moment in Game 4 of the Finals for a championship team. By contrast, poor Garnett was trapped on lousy and half-decent teams until 2004, when he carried the Timberwolves to the Western Conference finals, submitting an ESPN Cla...

Bill Simmons is curious about where the "Jason Kidd and the Mavs are a perfect fit" Crowd went: One other thought: After watching three nationally televised Mavs games in the past week, I was amazed that every announcer and studio analyst raved about Kidd and everything he "does" for a basketball team without ever mentioning his flaws. It's like he was a Republican getting broken down on Fox News. We get it, he makes everyone better and runs the hell out of a fast break. But what about the fact that he can't shoot? Or that he can't guard any penetrating guard? Or that, when things slow down in the last four minutes of a game and everyone stops running, he's just not as effective? I didn't hear one TV person mention this over the past week. Not one. Now I'm wondering if the G.P. Corollary applies to Kidd here -- in other words, because he looks exactly like he did during his apex, it's throwing everyone off (even someone astute like Kenny...

You can feel the anger in Bill Simmons' latest NFL Playoff predictions : According to Rule No. 10 of the manifesto, you can't pick an underdog if you don't think they can win the game. So let's look at the numbers here. Belichick's playoff record in New England: 14-2 Brady's playoff record at home: 6-0 Belichick's record against Jack Del Rio: 3-0 New England's lifetime record against Jacksonville: 7-1 New England's 2007 regular-season record: 16-0 Number of '07 Patriots wins by 14-plus points: 11 Record of '07 Jags after falling behind by more than seven points: 0-4 For anyone playing the "Jacksonville can control the clock and pressure Brady" card, didn't we see the Steelers drop 19 points on the Jags in about five seconds last weekend once they started chucking the ball every down? What about the fact Jacksonville relies on its defensive line for pressure and isn't one of those Philly-type teams that blitzes from all angl...

...and he puts him at the 27th most valuable player, right before Detriot's Chauncey Billups. Here's his take : Here's where you have to love the "Trade Value" game: Who turns down a Billups-Arenas swap, Wizards GM Ernie Grunfeld or Pistons GM Joe Dumars? The answer? Both would turn it down even though it's a fairly logical trade for both teams. Detroit increases its ceiling as a team (right now, it's second round and out) and gets a blue-chip scorer and gate attraction to keep up with LeBron in the Central; Washington gets an unselfish winner who makes everyone else better and gives it stability for once. That's a nice trade. In the end, Joe Dumars would flinch well before Ernie Grunfeld did -- he'd worry about Gilbert's impending free agency, he'd worry about going over the luxury tax and wrecking his salary structure this summer, and he'd definitely worry about Gilbert's knee problems and the curious way the Wizards came together...

ESPN's Sports Guy explains why : Just look at what's happened to the Blazers since they won the 1977 title. They saw a potential dynasty implode when Bill Walton's fragile feet couldn't carry them. They drafted Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan, for heaven's sake. And although they won 179 times from 1990 to '92 and made the Finals twice, they infamously self- destructed in countless close games. During Game 7 of the 2000 Western finals, they mailed in one of the mammoth choke jobs in NBA history. In this decade alone, they've suffered through the much-despised Jail Blazers era and a prolonged rebuilding project that was capped off by having Greg Oden fall into their laps, only to have his rookie season derailed before it began. Imagine if the timeline in the previous paragraph had been the Knicks'. We'd never hear the end of it. So why haven't the previous three decades of Blazer woes received as much attention as the travails of the Knicks have? Be...

It took a decade, but ESPN's Bill Simmons is putting out his NBA Preview. This go-around he's doing a fourth-parter (the first part came out today). I can't really complain since he did have to take care of his new baby (like a father should) but I still think he needs to post a pic of his kid as proof. Anyway, Part I includes a review of the Wizards (he does keep his tradition of going from worst to best) where he pulls no punches . Sure, as a partisan Wizards fan I could skip over such commentary, but then I wouldn't be a fair, opened-minded individual. So here goes: I picked the Wizards to miss the playoffs for three reasons: Gilbert Arenas' lingering knee problems, an improved Eastern Conference, and contract years for two of their top three (Arenas and Antawn Jamison). You know what happens when two of the three best guys on a struggling team are in contract years? Everyone starts gunning for their own stats and the situation turns nastier than the first 30 min...

Charley Rosen thinks that the Boston Celtics got a steal by getting Ray Allen in a Draft-night trade, but Sports Guy Bill Simmons isn't too sure . Later own I'll talk about how I think the Wizards did, and maybe about some other teams as well.

Bill Simmons on the stupid NBA rule about leaving the bench : Let's say you're one of the best seven players on the Phoenix Suns. You love Nash -- he's your emotional leader, your meal ticket to the Finals, the ideal teammate and someone who makes you happy to play basketball every day for a living. He's killing himself to win a championship. His nose was split open in Game 1. His back bothers him to the point that he has to lie down on the sidelines during breaks. He's battling a real cheap-shot artist (Bruce Bowen) who's trying to shove and trip him on every play. But he keeps coming and coming, and eventually everyone follows suit. Just as things were falling apart in Game 4 and you were staring at the end of your season, he willed you back into the game and saved the day. Suddenly, he gets body-checked into a press table for no real reason on an especially cheap play. You're standing 20 feet away. Instinctively, you run a few steps toward the guy who did...