No Rest For The Wicked
Just as people breathe a sigh of relief that what looked like the beginning of WW3 ended up being something (for now) less than, something from the recent past has resurfaced : The Tariff War. On April 9, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on all "reciprocal" tariffs imposed by the US, excepting those on China. As Morgan Stanley notes, July 9 is the next deadline for tariff negotiations . Markets are waiting to learn how Trump will approach this next phase. There are three chief reasons tariffs could come roaring back into view for investors. Geopolitics has overshadowed the trade war recently. The Israel-Iran conflict in recent weeks has taken up a lot of investors' focus, but the risks from that event appear to be dwindling. The next shoe to drop with regard to volatility is likely to be the next chapter of the trade war. Tariffs' effect on inflation may be lagged. Economists caution that the data in recent months showing inflation cooling might not la...