The Surge is Being Reversed

With considerably moderate fanfare, President Bush's much-criticised "surge" is in it's final throes:

The current total of 20 combat brigades is shrinking to 19 as the 3rd Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, operating in volatile Diyala province, leaves. The U.S. command in Baghdad announced on Saturday that the brigade had begun heading home to Fort Hood, Texas, and that its battle space will be taken by another brigade already operating in Iraq.

And just between me, you, and everyone else with access to this AP story:

Between January and July - on a schedule not yet made public - the force is to shrink further to 15 brigades. The total number of U.S. troops will likely go from 167,000 now to 140,000-145,000 by July, six months before President Bush leaves office and a new commander in chief enters the White House.

So what has been learned from this little experiment?

U.S. commanders assert that it is not just the larger number of U.S. troops that has made a difference but also the way those troops operate - closer to the Iraqi population now rather than from big, isolated U.S. bases. Living among the Iraqis, they say, allows for a building of greater trust.

That trust, in turn, prompted more local Iraqis - mostly Sunni Arabs but also Shiites - to join U.S. forces in anti-insurgent alliances, the commanders say. It also has meant more Iraqi help in finding insurgents' arms caches, reducing mortar attacks and in uncovering roadside bombs before they detonate.

OK; anything else to note?

Also important is whether the Iraqi security forces - Iraqi army and police - are ready to take over from U.S. troops. If they are not, Petraeus' strategy could fail and the whole U.S. enterprise in Iraq could unravel. The issue is not whether the Iraqi army and police have adequate training; it's whether they are willing to use their training to enforce order without perpetuating the sectarian divides.

Brig. Gen. Stephen Gledhill, the second-in-command for training Iraqi forces, says he is confident that conditions have improved to the point where the Iraqis are capable of filling any U.S. gaps.

"Our answer is that they not only will be able to - they already are, and will continue to do so as they gain experience, capabilities and capacity, and not only here in Baghdad but all around the country," Gledhill said in an e-mail.

Alright. So here's what I got:

1. By the time we get to pre-surge levels, Bush will still have half a year in office to play around.
2. The Commanders On The Ground seem to think it's wasn't the numbers that may helped, but a shift in strategy: namely, getting the soldiers out of the bases and trying to live amongst the Iraqi people.
3. More of the COTG think that the Iraqis are ready to run certain things, but not everything.

In other words: The next president will be spending all of 2009 fixing this mess.