Gallop Poll Highlights The Rise (& Importance of) Third/Independent Parties
Political independents continue to constitute the largest political bloc in the U.S., with an average of 43% of U.S. adults identifying this way in 2023, tying the record high from 2014. Independent identification has been 40% or higher each year since 2011, except for the 2016 (39%) and 2020 (39%) presidential election years. Equal 27% shares of U.S. adults identify as Republicans and Democrats, with the Democratic figure marking a new low for that party in Gallup’s trend.
Independents first outnumbered supporters of both major political parties in 1991 and have continued to do so since then, except in several years between 2004 and 2008. Over time, the increase in the percentage of independents has come more at the expense of Democrats than Republicans, which might be expected since Democrats were previously the largest political group.
Gallup asks respondents in each survey whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. The results reported here are based on combined data for each year, including interviews with more than 12,000 U.S. adults in 2023.
Independent identification was up two percentage points in 2023 compared with 2022, while there was a one-point decline in both Democratic and Republican identification.
Democratic identification has now declined by one point in each of the past three years. These declines, and the new low registered in 2023, are likely tied to President Joe Biden’s unpopularity. Biden’s job approval ratings have largely been around 40% since late 2021, and were consistently below that mark in October, November and December.
The record low for Republican identification was 25% in 2013.
It's important to note that at best, about half of half of the voters are either Democrat or Republican. Any third or independent party who decides to get their act together have 40%-50% of the electorate to work with.
Anyway, Gallop concludes with this:
As 2024 begins, the parties are closely matched based on political party identification and leanings. However, Democrats are clearly in a weaker position than they have been in any recent election year. This is based on the new low percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats, as well as the Republican advantage in leaned party identification. In the past four presidential election years, Democrats had at least a five-point advantage in leaned party identification. They won the popular vote each of those years, though Republican Donald Trump won the 2016 election based on the Electoral College vote.
This presidential election year is likely to see a drop in the percentage of political independents, as has occurred in six of the past seven presidential election years (all but 2012), amid intense focus on national politics and the two major parties. Still, even with a slight election-year drop -- which has ranged from two to five points -- independents will remain the largest, and arguably most persuadable, group of voters. In what is expected to be a close election contest, it is critical for each party, but especially Democrats, to nominate a candidate who can appeal to independent voters.
I have to disagree with the "persuadable" part; based on how the media treats non-Republicans and non-Democrats it's hard to believe that anyone who's opted out of the duopoly can be persuaded to return. Once you realize what the two major parties actually agree on, and how they operate to those who've tried to change their makeup, they become less and less of a viable option to make real political, economical and societal change.
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