Obama's Delegate Problem
MSNBC's Chuck Todd on the options for Camp Obama:
Here's the dilemma: if it's the superdelegates that put Obama over the top, Hillary Clinton supporters (and possibility Clinton herself, although I still have hope that she's politically savy enough to see that even if she disagrees with the outcome, she realizes that it's better that she doesn't say anything directly) will call foul using the Popular Vote Myth that Clinton has touted recently. They will say that the "people" didn't get their say.
If, however, the last two primaries tonight put Obama over the top, he can claim that he can use what I call "The Last Bit of Juice in the Carton" Principle. My family was (and still is) notorious for drinking just enough juice from the carton that they get what they want but there's still a bit left. Inevitably, I would be the one who finished it off, and would subsequently be accused of drinking "all of the juice." Simply because I drank the last portion.
If it's the delegates from Montana and South Dakota that take Sen. Obama to the magic number, it's obvious that that will happen only after a certain number of superdelegates pledge to him. But my guess is that the media could care less about that.
It's all about who helps Barack Obama reach the magic number. For his sake, superdelegates better start making their decision before the polls close and not after the states have decided.
It’s perhaps only fitting, we guess, that the final two Democratic primary contests today take place exactly five months since this whole process began, on January 3 in frigid Iowa. And five months since that day, here is where we stand: Per NBC’s count, Obama is 37 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination. But with just 31 pledged delegates at stake in today’s two primaries in Montana and South Dakota, Obama will need a slew of superdelegate endorsements to be able to get there tonight.
So “No Drama Obama” is violating his unofficial mantra today by, well, trying to create some drama: Will he cross the 2,118 line tonight or not? With the announcement by Jim Clyburn that he's supporting Obama, as well as the endorsements from Michigan’s Joyce Lalonde (who only gets a half vote) and Missouri Rep. Maria Chapelle-Nadal, Obama has already picked up 2.5 supers today.
Can he get about 20 more before he speaks in St. Paul tonight in order to have the media put him over top to make him the presumptive nominee? We're told if the campaign has the supers we hear they have, they'll roll them out in chunks today -- possibly as many as 18 House members today, a handful of senators, and the trickling of DNC members.
Here's the dilemma: if it's the superdelegates that put Obama over the top, Hillary Clinton supporters (and possibility Clinton herself, although I still have hope that she's politically savy enough to see that even if she disagrees with the outcome, she realizes that it's better that she doesn't say anything directly) will call foul using the Popular Vote Myth that Clinton has touted recently. They will say that the "people" didn't get their say.
If, however, the last two primaries tonight put Obama over the top, he can claim that he can use what I call "The Last Bit of Juice in the Carton" Principle. My family was (and still is) notorious for drinking just enough juice from the carton that they get what they want but there's still a bit left. Inevitably, I would be the one who finished it off, and would subsequently be accused of drinking "all of the juice." Simply because I drank the last portion.
If it's the delegates from Montana and South Dakota that take Sen. Obama to the magic number, it's obvious that that will happen only after a certain number of superdelegates pledge to him. But my guess is that the media could care less about that.
It's all about who helps Barack Obama reach the magic number. For his sake, superdelegates better start making their decision before the polls close and not after the states have decided.
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